Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89f40064bb4a96a58e04acd44b292c970c93463b3df47bc01ff09e56e09d1857
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 26c | 1,510$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.57 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 22c | 887.98$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.18 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 491.86$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.49 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 29c | 453.03$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.53 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 70c | 423$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.19 | 83 | 80.7%67 W · 16 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x902b…6e29backed No | 77c | 352.94$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 54c | 316.56$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 28c | 300$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.17 | 300 | 32%96 W · 204 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 298.95$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 293.97$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.51 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 48c | 249.61$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 308 | 28.2%87 W · 221 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d8…0a12backed No | 79c | 243.92$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 219$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…05fabacked Yes | 31c | 218$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1,079 | 36.5%394 W · 685 L | +26.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 152.07$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 75c | 145.57$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 75c | 123.01$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 57c | 122.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 486 | 39.7%193 W · 293 L | +21.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 75c | 117.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 76c | 116.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…0062backed No | 51c | 114.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 104$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 1,048 | 68.7%720 W · 328 L | -33.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb842…5204backed No | 75c | 102.92$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 24c | 101.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3122…9d2fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 34c | 99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…30d0backed Yes | 26c | 97.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 93.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 88.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…33f6backed No | 45c | 88.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 76.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa387…3d3cbacked Yes | 24c | 71.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 33c | 71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +27.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 69.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 76c | 67.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 44c | 66.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 651 | 60.4%393 W · 258 L | +92.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…e0ffbacked No | 70c | 60.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…685bbacked No | 80c | 57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 20c | 54.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 20c | 54.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 77c | 51.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 23c | 51.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 50.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 560 | 67.1%376 W · 184 L | +26.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf31d…7034backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 47.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 30c | 46.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 24c | 44.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 76c | 39.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…86f1backed No | 78c | 38.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 53c | 36.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 34.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 40c | 33.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 33c | 32.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 46c | 32.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 46c | 32.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 74c | 31.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,004 | 70.9%712 W · 292 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 56c | 26.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…102ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 72c | 24.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…f9e0backed No | 77c | 23.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 23.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 69c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 77c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…9df0backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.