Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9524bd62805e9c24f82351720c18959db46e709487b870289edd2a2172393cc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 2,385$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,337$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.63 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 4c | 951.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf282…8d92backed No | 3c | 703.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…b576backed No | 4c | 702.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 63c | 700$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 36c | 600$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.88 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.2 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5211…632cbacked No | 4c | 525.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 54c | 495$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.59 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 493.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 62c | 433.63$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.85 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…2e37backed Yes | 77c | 265.58$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 246.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 36c | 219.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…60d2backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4fddbacked No | 59c | 151.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 51c | 115.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 62c | 111$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…d924backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 36c | 44.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 51c | 43.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 48c | 43.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 67c | 42.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 55c | 41.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…e5f2backed No | 59c | 34.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 9?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 3?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 4?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 5?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 6?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.