Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f6a3d3bd8d8e7c4a1764f8771f65e23566d994d92c6692b6333ceb6bb291afe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92e9…3ca3backed No | 0c | 8,793$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,904$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 0c | 2,850$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 4c | 2,067$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 15c | 899.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 800.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9194…3352backed No | 6c | 623.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5a…6ca4backed No | 4c | 379.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 77c | 376.69$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 56c | 334.73$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.9 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 289.2$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 70c | 285$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 13c | 260$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 41c | 224.42$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.67 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e16…7d17backed No | 5c | 221.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…60d2backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 8c | 128.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 70c | 83.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 64c | 72.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 53c | 69.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x513a…7951backed Yes | 57c | 60.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab0c…b43fbacked Yes | 46c | 50.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 27c | 45.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b3…3e2dbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 44c | 38.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…6c26backed Yes | 42c | 31.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…cdd1backed Yes | 42c | 31.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…2a62backed Yes | 42c | 29.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 51c | 28.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6737…109abacked Yes | 47c | 26.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac4…8734backed No | 59c | 25.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e3…47cebacked No | 59c | 24.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…76afbacked No | 59c | 24.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…9267backed No | 56c | 22.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 5?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 3?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 4?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 6?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 8?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.