TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Taro Danielof Federico Cina, Taro Daniel
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,197
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,671

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,197 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Federico Cina53c20,996$11,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,139.6425453.1%135 W · 119 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Taro Daniel63c10,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7003655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Federico Cina59c8,359$4,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,930.296040%24 W · 36 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Taro Daniel46c6,517$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,506.8111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Taro Daniel48c4,398$2,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,271.668,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a00…9158backed Taro Daniel47c4,248$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,251.4478840.6%320 W · 468 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Federico Cina36c3,210$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.583,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Taro Daniel47c2,646$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.652152.2%272 W · 249 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe98c…8792backed Taro Daniel48c1,547$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.3830440.5%123 W · 181 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Taro Daniel46c1,252$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.8640144.4%178 W · 223 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed Taro Daniel44c1,200$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.1838652.3%202 W · 184 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Taro Daniel49c1,173$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.878,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Federico Cina45c1,134$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.2765651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Taro Daniel49c1,121$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.714,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Taro Daniel49c1,025$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.751,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9201…e578backed Taro Daniel50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5005058%29 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Federico Cina52c978.68$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.913,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Federico Cina56c803.91$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.198757.5%50 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb45…0cadbacked Taro Daniel49c760.49$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.5211963.9%76 W · 43 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Taro Daniel62c704.79$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.94,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Federico Cina53c672.19$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.041,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd54e…5119backed Taro Daniel50c646.34$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.17580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+48.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Taro Daniel49c609.35$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.771,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Federico Cina67c600.6$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.424856.9%141 W · 107 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Taro Daniel44c599.2$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.557,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Federico Cina48c562.14$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.521,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad0…cdc2backed Federico Cina47c555.06$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26011148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4efe…d987backed Federico Cina58c518.86$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Taro Daniel48c517.56$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.344,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5baf…3e56backed Federico Cina36c500$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.3865840.9%269 W · 389 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Taro Daniel45c499.99$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.142,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Taro Daniel43c487.99$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.598,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Taro Daniel69c453.97$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.71,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Taro Daniel50c445.49$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.733,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Taro Daniel61c437.96$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.41,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Federico Cina49c409.73$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Federico Cina51c403.09$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.491,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04c7…c7a7backed Federico Cina48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19218551.4%95 W · 90 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ee…0db4backed Federico Cina52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20054547.9%261 W · 284 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Federico Cina37c378.38$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a14…9fe4backed Taro Daniel44c373.02$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.1940935.7%146 W · 263 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Federico Cina54c367.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca85…7453backed Federico Cina62c351.61$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21815440.9%63 W · 91 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x561d…4134backed Taro Daniel39c350$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21244949.4%222 W · 227 L+23.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Taro Daniel48c308$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.9651339.4%202 W · 311 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc376…6850backed Federico Cina50c300.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.412653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+61%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa43a…1475backed Federico Cina49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1473116.1%5 W · 26 L-5.7wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-71.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xaa8f…14d1backed Federico Cina56c283.46$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.5424936.5%91 W · 158 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c50…d6ebbacked Taro Daniel71c281$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.4911059.1%65 W · 45 L+0.5wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Taro Daniel47c257.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.747,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ea…2f71backed Taro Daniel55c233.75$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2944758.8%263 W · 184 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Taro Daniel44c223.3$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.9896945.9%445 W · 524 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Federico Cina52c223.21$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0752557%299 W · 226 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Taro Daniel49c222.97$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.9763247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Taro Daniel47c219.04$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.742,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed Federico Cina69c217.39$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15082560.5%499 W · 326 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Federico Cina39c215.68$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.871,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x782d…8211backed Taro Daniel49c191.66$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.1670456.8%400 W · 304 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Federico Cina52c188.68$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.111,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa99…f152backed Federico Cina54c185.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10073458.6%430 W · 304 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Taro Daniel41c182$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.0838952.2%203 W · 186 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Federico Cina53c180$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.51,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Federico Cina20c176.07$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.643,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a17…5f06backed Federico Cina68c170.87$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1913137.4%49 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Federico Cina40c161.6$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.641,11145.3%503 W · 608 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Federico Cina53c161$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.331,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Taro Daniel63c157.14$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.141,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc7…f7debacked Federico Cina60c153.83$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.782638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ac6…e020backed Taro Daniel50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7534761.1%212 W · 135 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6ad…85f7backed Taro Daniel47c148.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.941346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d29…f683backed Federico Cina68c147.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033647.3%159 W · 177 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf6f4…e4cbbacked Federico Cina52c144.23$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755850%29 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Taro Daniel79c140.7$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.191051%464 W · 446 L+23.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cf8…75e4backed Federico Cina50c140$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7019343.5%84 W · 109 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a99…d29fbacked Federico Cina59c138.63$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7930642.2%129 W · 177 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Federico Cina52c130$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.61,15148.7%560 W · 591 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Federico Cina50c130$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6569253.3%369 W · 323 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked Taro Daniel42c129.57$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1553657.8%310 W · 226 L+35.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked Taro Daniel47c125.85$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.71,04058.2%605 W · 435 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Taro Daniel47c124.19$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.291,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Taro Daniel53c116.18$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.531,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8951…dfcfbacked Federico Cina52c114$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7625858.1%150 W · 108 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Taro Daniel47c113.93$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.791,00843.8%442 W · 566 L-2.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Federico Cina37c108.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4023353.2%124 W · 109 L+0.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7422…8a59backed Taro Daniel47c105.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.697546.7%35 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Federico Cina52c102.83$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.471,02157.8%590 W · 431 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Taro Daniel50c102.08$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.531,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf5f…2184backed Federico Cina50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb94…a015backed Federico Cina50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503333.3%11 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e85…01fcbacked Federico Cina52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…3a00backed Federico Cina30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307226.4%19 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84b8…93c7backed Federico Cina60c97.77$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.667644.7%34 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa8…a338backed Taro Daniel51c94.47$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.293452.9%18 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdfa…79a0backed Federico Cina53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e5…c3d4backed Federico Cina55c91.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e68…b271backed Taro Daniel44c90.91$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.919447.9%45 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Federico Cina48c89.69$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.052,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa542…efd1backed Federico Cina57c88.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Federico Cina51c88$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.882,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Taro Daniel56c87$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.241,72552.2%901 W · 824 L-8.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.