Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Linda Noskova vs Karolina Muchova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x953967fe367b5f8a57ef93d9b4e5a9f3ba69914d7a27a3c9ea8257987106d2d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Noskova, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Noskova | 21c | 4,667$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.57 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Muchova | 33c | 3,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Noskova | 64c | 2,770$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772.36 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Noskova | 28c | 1,682$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.04 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Noskova | 52c | 1,342$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.68 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Noskova | 40c | 1,122$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Muchova | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.68 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Noskova | 48c | 679.6$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.21 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Noskova | 21c | 624.78$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.23 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Muchova | 52c | 505.5$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.64 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Muchova | 60c | 495.24$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.63 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Muchova | 51c | 338$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.62 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Noskova | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Muchova | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…6e64backed Muchova | 52c | 271.1$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Noskova | 34c | 241.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Muchova | 46c | 219.06$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.51 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Noskova | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…c116backed Noskova | 35c | 193.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Muchova | 60c | 188$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Muchova | 68c | 146.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Muchova | 59c | 138.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Noskova | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…4d8ebacked Muchova | 50c | 115.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Muchova | 47c | 114.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Muchova | 50c | 109.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Muchova | 46c | 105.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +8.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Noskova | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Noskova | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Muchova | 75c | 80.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Muchova | 52c | 61.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Noskova | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Muchova | 57c | 44.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Muchova | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Muchova | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Muchova | 34c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Noskova | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8f…816ebacked Noskova | 68c | 37.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Noskova | 42c | 33.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Muchova | 63c | 32.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Muchova | 63c | 30.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 103 | 72.8%75 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Muchova | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Noskova | 48c | 29.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Muchova | 49c | 22.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0635…5cb5backed Muchova | 78c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.