Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x955576c5080e554b5bc7dc2e529a54d5dda4b28518ac2e234a2e399c3b4e675c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 245.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 72c | 244.68$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.72 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 174.86$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 172.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 67c | 154.72$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 150.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 29c | 144.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 21c | 141.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 17c | 105.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 95.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 42c | 86.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 83.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 80.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 18c | 75.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…5619backed Yes | 42c | 71.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 17c | 70.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 45c | 69.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 18c | 66.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 23c | 63.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 18c | 61.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 72c | 59.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 41c | 58.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 57.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…3dbfbacked Yes | 70c | 57.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 54c | 55.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 75c | 53.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 33c | 48.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 62c | 46.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 55c | 46.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…0876backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 58c | 43.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 74c | 42.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 34c | 39.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked No | 71c | 29.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 29.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 70c | 27.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 48c | 22.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 80c | 18.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked No | 79c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.