Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ce7e7263af4ae934711a27555c8907fb759d9786dd0d871057644c57051ffdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 713.67$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 489.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 349.63$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.59 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 71c | 342.01$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.81 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 6c | 319.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.22 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 47c | 310.43$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.55 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 48c | 305.3$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.84 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 242.66$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 9c | 239.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.31 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 70c | 227.36$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 9c | 189.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 19c | 154.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 141.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 139.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.36 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 21c | 115$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.62 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 114.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…5619backed Yes | 28c | 107.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.07 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…3dbfbacked No | 15c | 101.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 99.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 31c | 97.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed Yes | 27c | 96.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 23c | 93.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 85.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 77.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 53c | 77.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…9156backed Yes | 32c | 77.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 45c | 77.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 42c | 69.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 68c | 66.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 66.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe37c…eb1fbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 42c | 60.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 55.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 26c | 53.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 34c | 52.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 28c | 44.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 40.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 75c | 40.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 46c | 37.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0ec7backed Yes | 52c | 35.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 30c | 34.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 67c | 31.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 64c | 29.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 45c | 27.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 63c | 26.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 60c | 23.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 22.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 53c | 22.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 18.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 76c | 17.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 13.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.