Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ee1cd5b4207dd1ebfcdae66a0e3b5610aef6ef7292fcc7ee51619d629b50d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 73c | 294.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 227$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 69c | 196.95$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 71c | 176.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.29 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 176.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 176.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 173.59$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 30c | 166.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 32c | 154.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 153.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 70c | 143.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 75c | 133.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked Yes | 32c | 124.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 27c | 116.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.34 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 27c | 114.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 18c | 111.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked No | 65c | 106.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 37c | 103.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 29c | 99.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 28c | 94.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 70c | 88.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 82.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 79.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…902bbacked No | 78c | 77.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…9156backed Yes | 34c | 74.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 69.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 76c | 65.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 45c | 63.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 76c | 58.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 23c | 56.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 54.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 53.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 36c | 53.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 27c | 50.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 22c | 48.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…d5cabacked No | 64c | 47.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 27c | 47.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 24c | 46.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 45.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 41.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 26c | 40.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37c…eb1fbacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 27c | 39.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 28c | 38.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 38.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 74c | 36.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 74c | 34.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 31c | 33.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 36c | 30.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0ec7backed Yes | 40c | 29.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 76c | 27.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 49c | 24.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 23.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked No | 72c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 18.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 61c | 16.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 71c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 71c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.