Mls · resolved market
New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x955957ff36cc0abcf4040436effbd9fc98b463412f219adbf275e92acf8c1a63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 5,908$2,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,002.18 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 45c | 5,457$2,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,005.9 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 35c | 2,512$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.84 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 55c | 2,357$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.11 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 56c | 1,766$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.96 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 56c | 1,265$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.4 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 15c | 1,211$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.69 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 1,026$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.06 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 40c | 834$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.6 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.7wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Over | 42c | 834$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.88 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 55c | 751.73$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.45 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Under | 76c | 650.09$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.02 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 72c | 551.9$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.44 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 550.25$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.78 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 55c | 353.72$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 56c | 278.11$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.22 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Over | 12c | 260$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 73c | 254.5$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 45c | 248.21$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.52 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 24c | 222.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4d…be6fbacked Under | 47c | 219.1$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Over | 56c | 149.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 17c | 147.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 44c | 139.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Over | 56c | 107.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Under | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 55c | 94.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…a334backed Over | 56c | 89.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 45c | 80.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 55c | 56.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 56c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…9426backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab5…95fabacked Over | 56c | 44.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 39.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 59c | 31.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 45c | 31.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…7832backed Over | 55c | 31.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Under | 66c | 28.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 76c | 23.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5this page
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: New England Revolution O/U 1.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: New England Revolution O/U 2.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: O/U 0.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-2.5)Toronto FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.