Mls · resolved market
Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8e0a4230493d29ac1929b01a7ea66b0da8b345768cb2534845c352b9b072e08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto FCof New England Revolution, Toronto FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed New England Revolution | 18c | 1,668$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a1…30d1backed New England Revolution | 24c | 1,334$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked New England Revolution | 29c | 1,334$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.63 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed New England Revolution | 15c | 524.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Toronto FC | 71c | 467.7$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.63 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto FC | 74c | 448.24$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.54 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Toronto FC | 70c | 197$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Toronto FC | 69c | 191.83$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed New England Revolution | 25c | 151.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Toronto FC | 80c | 98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Toronto FC | 75c | 94.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed New England Revolution | 27c | 91.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto FC | 74c | 64.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Toronto FC | 70c | 52.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Toronto FC | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed New England Revolution | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Toronto FC | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Toronto FC | 74c | 17.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…a901backed Toronto FC | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5)this page
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: New England Revolution O/U 1.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: New England Revolution O/U 2.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: O/U 0.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-2.5)Toronto FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.