Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9580b07e82b4577be5500086b414be4188643ed5d0542af67d5d119d4211e352
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 43c | 3,822$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,171.9 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 1c | 3,754$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 3,115$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.5 | 2,575 | 45.6%1,174 W · 1,401 L | +12.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 2,555$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.48 | 2,013 | 39.4%794 W · 1,219 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 35c | 2,060$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.18 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…c033backed Under | 75c | 1,921$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 73c | 1,637$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Under | 78c | 1,294$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…58eabacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 75c | 880.9$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.82 | 412 | 40.8%168 W · 244 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 34c | 765.48$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.98 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Over | 13c | 750$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +78%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…0a4cbacked Over | 26c | 593.16$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.94 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 30c | 490.82$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.57 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Under | 29c | 340.27$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 30c | 299.21$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.44 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…2f80backed Over | 70c | 263.38$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 60c | 238.03$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.82 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Under | 18c | 210.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 24c | 195.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.41 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5817…987dbacked Under | 75c | 172.24$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 13c | 171.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 78c | 158.27$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 75c | 136.28$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 416 | 44%183 W · 233 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…b0debacked Over | 29c | 111.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +176.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…b79ebacked Over | 40c | 107.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Under | 20c | 103.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 17c | 93.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 43c | 91.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 25c | 79.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 24c | 64.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 41c | 63.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 63c | 61.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 242 | 46.3%112 W · 130 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 32c | 43.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 474 | 42.8%203 W · 271 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 70c | 38.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Over | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 77c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 312 | 51.9%162 W · 150 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 73c | 27.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5this page
- AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Atalanta BC won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.