UFC · resolved market
Will Alex Pereira win by KO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x958b2ecaabf3b881d792ce140f0e4e5e8fc0eefd004ddf792683e5ccc35ca7b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 1c | 1,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…3b76backed No | 71c | 1,384$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…b0d0backed Yes | 26c | 723.38$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 60c | 440.32$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.9 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 34c | 249.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed No | 60c | 181.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.97 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 38c | 179.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53a…3d65backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Yes | 40c | 149.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked No | 60c | 130.53$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +53%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 62c | 124.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 60c | 97.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 61c | 87.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 37c | 72.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…126cbacked Yes | 39c | 71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 36c | 65.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 64c | 59.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…8907backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c8…6990backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed6d…8ef3backed Yes | 40c | 49.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919c…5afebacked No | 72c | 48.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 63c | 48.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5594…c0b2backed Yes | 31c | 48.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked No | 59c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b6…0843backed Yes | 39c | 43.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…9a2cbacked Yes | 26c | 38.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf53…401cbacked Yes | 33c | 37.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d66…3c95backed Yes | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 59c | 25.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…4ac7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…0565backed Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e5cfbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…a70abacked No | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alex Pereira win by KO?this page
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO?No won
- Will Magomed Ankalaev win win by KO?No won
- Will Rafael Fiziev win by KO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.