College Football · resolved market
California vs. Hawaii: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95b7b76941a22842858a92285e76fa2ac2b7fdd912cd364708747099a03baece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Californiaof California, Hawaii
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Hawaii | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked California | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Hawaii | 49c | 106$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Hawaii | 48c | 87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Hawaii | 49c | 81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked California | 47c | 77.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Hawaii | 48c | 76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Hawaii | 49c | 57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Hawaii | 49c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Hawaii | 49c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked California | 51c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Hawaii | 52c | 39.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed California | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed California | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed California | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed California | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked California | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked California | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked California | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked California | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked California | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked California | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked California | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed California | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed California | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- California vs. Hawaii: 1H Moneylinethis page
- California vs. HawaiiHawaii won
- California vs. Hawaii: O/U 50.5Over won
- California vs. Hawaii: O/U 51.5Over won
- O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Hawaii (-1.5)Hawaii won
- Spread: Hawaii (-1.5)Hawaii won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.