College Football · resolved market
California vs. Hawaii: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19495ddf4283753dda48cf00d1ee332ab492fb4246f7779a9563784c1b4bfee5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…5500backed Over | 52c | 8,300$4,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,984 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…72b0backed Under | 48c | 8,300$3,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,984 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…09dcbacked Over | 52c | 8,300$4,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,984 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…6e64backed Under | 48c | 8,300$3,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,984 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Under | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 4,450$2,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,096.97 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Under | 46c | 2,010$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 1,694$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.64 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 50c | 1,554$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 54c | 1,181$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.2 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 46c | 544.26$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Over | 55c | 456.36$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.36 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 47c | 393.91$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.72 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 228.38$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.89 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 53c | 223$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db9…3d33backed Under | 47c | 221.28$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed Over | 54c | 185.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1131…10c0backed Under | 49c | 171.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c4…fe0abacked Over | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…c807backed Over | 54c | 144.63$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 46c | 113$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 104.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5092…fccdbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 46c | 83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…91fcbacked Under | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 47c | 47.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Over | 54c | 46.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…8194backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Over | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…9289backed Over | 53c | 27.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Over | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Over | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- California vs. Hawaii: O/U 50.5this page
- California vs. HawaiiHawaii won
- California vs. Hawaii: 1H MoneylineCalifornia won
- California vs. Hawaii: O/U 51.5Over won
- O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Hawaii (-1.5)Hawaii won
- Spread: Hawaii (-1.5)Hawaii won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.