College Football · resolved market
Spread: Hawaii (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb78ac2862e05c147f8ef861b450d7e0d74e4c0a2d9d9440b986e38b6cea9231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawaiiof Hawaii, California
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88a2…d974backed California | 52c | 7,252$3,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,771 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Hawaii | 49c | 5,030$2,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,565.6 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Hawaii | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599.98 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed California | 51c | 4,872$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484.96 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Hawaii | 49c | 3,721$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.48 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Hawaii | 48c | 2,498$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.19 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd89e…35fabacked Hawaii | 48c | 2,498$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.96 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed California | 51c | 2,297$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…0fc6backed California | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.99 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Hawaii | 52c | 1,497$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.1 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed California | 51c | 945$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.95 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…531bbacked Hawaii | 52c | 625.01$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Hawaii | 18c | 570$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed California | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Hawaii | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…8052backed California | 51c | 137$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Hawaii | 47c | 115.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed California | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawaii | 42c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed California | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Hawaii | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked California | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked California | 52c | 97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Hawaii | 50c | 88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed California | 52c | 87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked California | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked California | 50c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd128…c5dfbacked Hawaii | 49c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Hawaii | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed California | 49c | 60.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed California | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Hawaii | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hawaii | 49c | 43.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Hawaii | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…df5cbacked California | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked California | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Hawaii | 49c | 31.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Hawaii | 48c | 31.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Hawaii | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Hawaii | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hawaii | 49c | 21.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked California | 49c | 21.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…2138backed Hawaii | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawaii (-1.5)this page
- California vs. HawaiiHawaii won
- California vs. Hawaii: 1H MoneylineCalifornia won
- California vs. Hawaii: O/U 50.5Over won
- California vs. Hawaii: O/U 51.5Over won
- O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Hawaii (-1.5)Hawaii won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.