Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95bfb53f265a3cf12f3f75431008a7bdf551cbd1c03401302d34e570c3e05e22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 80c | 884.98$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.03 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 497.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 489.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.82 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 289.83$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.54 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 20c | 286.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 16c | 169.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.77 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 25c | 168.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.97 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 15c | 157$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 136.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 26c | 135$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 45c | 134.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 31c | 134.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 78c | 127.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed Yes | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 123.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 51c | 120.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 114.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 85.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 80.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…e292backed Yes | 26c | 78.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 51c | 78.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 34c | 74.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 71.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 56c | 71.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 16c | 70.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…3dbfbacked Yes | 58c | 70.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 16c | 69.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 16c | 69.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 66.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 15c | 66.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 72c | 63.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…da9ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 26c | 48.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 79c | 44.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 43.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes | 29c | 42.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 34c | 42.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed No | 29c | 41.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 50c | 40.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 26c | 38.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 76c | 32.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 40c | 31.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 31.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 55c | 30.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 29.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 25.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 63c | 23.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 74c | 21.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 20.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 13.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.