Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9151f6b199ba18d586d0352ef26af92d3b65b3f536922a364dbf22875d2d3098
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 423.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 393.71$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 35c | 136.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 26c | 125$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 124.54$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 71c | 112.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 102.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 23c | 102.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 61c | 96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 94.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 70c | 91.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 70c | 85.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e90…ff76backed No | 68c | 73.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 69.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 18c | 67.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 75c | 66.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 57.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 56.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x618c…1d52backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 54.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 36c | 53.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 44.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 42.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 41.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 64c | 36.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed Yes | 43c | 35.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked No | 71c | 34.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 22.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 79c | 21.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 70c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 72c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 12.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.