Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfca6c543ccedc905a7faa169ffe3dc10be713a42956670ed8b821bc1e173e45e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 13c | 438.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 275.52$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 120.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 32c | 109.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 108.39$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 72c | 103$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 10c | 96.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 47c | 88.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…ac42backed Yes | 18c | 73.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 72.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 37c | 69.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 54c | 69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 25c | 64.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 57.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 55.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 49.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 62c | 41.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 55c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 40.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x618c…1d52backed Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…e428backed Yes | 38c | 38.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 30.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 30.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 30.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 29.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 29.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde86…f015backed Yes | 49c | 28.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 62c | 26.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 67c | 20.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 19.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 71c | 17.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…fe21backed No | 72c | 17.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.