Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95e8608bc6d6e7da38b01146e8b65fc4cf79af3e4045a2d0d8ff7ff5d252558c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 6,390$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 963.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 56c | 614.31$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.28 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 63c | 551.82$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.68 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 416.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked No | 37c | 325.9$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.41 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 39c | 306.7$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.19 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…3416backed Yes | 69c | 262.03$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 59c | 233.83$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 45c | 205.58$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 52c | 133.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 51c | 129$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 41c | 123.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 121.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 118$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 57c | 115$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 47c | 105.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 70c | 103.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 45c | 102.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 46c | 100.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 72c | 99.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 74c | 95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 34c | 90.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 61.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 52c | 56.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 37c | 51.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 55c | 48.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 47c | 48.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 47.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9653…02abbacked No | 59c | 46.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa77e…aea7backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 56c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce46…a9afbacked No | 66c | 40.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 40.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 42c | 38.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 54c | 31.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 41c | 29.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…dcfdbacked Yes | 43c | 23.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 56c | 23.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08d…5891backed Yes | 46c | 23.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 50c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…0359backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…d2f9backed Yes | 60c | 19.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f30…de1dbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…95d5backed No | 56c | 17.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 59c | 17.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.