Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92d729d749472d4fdd5d2e8b61a4dcf5855f12f2f18df9382e5c47fca3215528
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 6,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 1c | 5,672$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 1c | 1,626$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…aa34backed No | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 17c | 794.95$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 761.13$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…2061backed No | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 68c | 648.36$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.85 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b5…9650backed No | 2c | 552.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 16c | 376.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 339.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.77 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 75c | 261.67$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 29c | 232.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.31 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 200.57$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 140.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 134.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 57c | 133.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 130.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 125.56$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.36 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 60c | 125.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 18c | 119.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 118$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 50c | 115.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 33c | 109.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 36c | 99.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 83.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 76c | 82.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…37c5backed Yes | 49c | 81.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 36c | 72.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 71.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 32c | 68.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 65.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 43c | 64.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 54.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 36c | 52.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 47.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 54c | 44.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 37c | 44.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 38c | 43.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 27c | 39.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 37.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 64c | 37.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52a…0a58backed No | 77c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 36c | 36.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 69c | 36.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 36.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2914backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 78c | 22.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 20.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed No | 59c | 19.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 15.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.