TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
OGof OG, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$963,666
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,030,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $963,666 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 474 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked OG44c412,981$183,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229,260.8328748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Tundra Esports62c172,445$106,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106,798.911,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Tundra Esports58c88,888$51,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,443.9122644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed OG56c27,303$15,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,950.3634468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Tundra Esports48c26,986$12,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,902.4589741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Tundra Esports38c22,222$8,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,444.3645139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports54c20,937$11,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,408.532,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Tundra Esports59c20,000$11,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,85029042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Tundra Esports37c16,895$6,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,190.081,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Tundra Esports59c16,803$9,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,90043344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed OG31c15,358$4,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,585.3231248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed OG39c15,000$5,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,15011953.8%64 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Tundra Esports59c14,566$8,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,577.9969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed OG63c13,960$8,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,189.7738855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked OG41c13,437$5,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,927.662133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Tundra Esports58c13,211$7,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,662.3641056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed OG40c12,862$5,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,684.9596557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed OG36c12,556$4,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,020.7156955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed OG45c11,844$5,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,488.4812557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked OG41c11,673$4,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,839.31,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Tundra Esports59c11,649$6,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,917.8141944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1137…e601backed OG31c10,707$3,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,386.527040%28 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Tundra Esports59c10,690$6,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,343.0213854.3%75 W · 63 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed OG42c10,076$4,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,876.6841351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Tundra Esports45c10,073$4,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,507.762347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Tundra Esports68c10,045$6,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,880.8218351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports51c8,025$4,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,118.621,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Tundra Esports60c7,407$4,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,44425549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked OG37c7,164$2,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,481.9513851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Tundra Esports59c7,125$4,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,203.826842.6%29 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed OG40c6,893$2,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,133.5830357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked OG79c6,547$5,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.4992056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed OG48c6,417$3,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,313.6653764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed OG31c6,234$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,299.446051.7%31 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Tundra Esports35c6,001$2,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,118.9752046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed OG41c6,000$2,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,56736248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed OG31c5,742$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,961.9371454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Tundra Esports52c5,278$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75035062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Tundra Esports49c5,204$2,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541.431,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed OG39c4,838$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,937.8314825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03a2…7e3ebacked Tundra Esports48c4,468$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,144.4712248.4%59 W · 63 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Tundra Esports55c4,444$2,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,444.25244.2%23 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Tundra Esports57c4,209$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,402.430336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Tundra Esports59c4,071$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,402.194652.2%24 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked OG44c4,017$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,267.6135951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc62d…74fcbacked Tundra Esports59c3,908$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3005251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Tundra Esports54c3,500$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,89010646.2%49 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed OG50c3,323$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.3651140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Tundra Esports50c3,209$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.8368649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af3…b3b4backed OG32c3,169$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,155.05560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+52.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Tundra Esports66c3,100$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04695342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Tundra Esports56c3,074$1,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.4445352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Tundra Esports67c3,000$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0109839.8%39 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Tundra Esports69c3,000$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,07041055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Tundra Esports59c3,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.9949455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed OG33c3,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.9815144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed OG33c2,750$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,85281029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Tundra Esports52c2,696$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.3489749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5240…f84ebacked Tundra Esports52c2,618$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.421566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb11…8f3fbacked OG34c2,603$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.7910551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed Tundra Esports60c2,517$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50030356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3601…44fbbacked Tundra Esports60c2,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50016954.4%92 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked OG29c2,449$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,738.578847.7%42 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked OG32c2,397$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.532951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Tundra Esports50c2,332$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.71,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Tundra Esports65c2,280$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.9635960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked OG43c2,253$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.4325752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked OG57c2,212$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.1750850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed OG40c2,081$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.5925248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Tundra Esports38c2,073$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.912255.7%68 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed OG31c2,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3807541.3%31 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c93…2079backed OG58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8403562.9%22 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed OG32c2,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3604843.8%21 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Tundra Esports1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201153.5%4 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-88.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Tundra Esports48c1,980$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.651,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad4d…dd89backed OG37c1,972$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.887736.4%28 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x483a…01d6backed Tundra Esports53c1,861$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.097545.3%34 W · 41 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Tundra Esports56c1,805$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.4499844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Tundra Esports50c1,800$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.9257449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed OG40c1,774$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.435151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Tundra Esports60c1,767$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06022340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked Tundra Esports58c1,724$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009543.2%41 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf518…07bcbacked OG46c1,640$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.223050%15 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x433c…81eabacked OG32c1,555$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.41546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Tundra Esports17c1,506$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.18360.2%50 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed Tundra Esports68c1,506$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.82425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Tundra Esports68c1,500$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02056852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf24…7d4abacked Tundra Esports48c1,500$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.115149%25 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed OG46c1,500$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81058744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed OG33c1,500$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,01065441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Tundra Esports41c1,498$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.051,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Tundra Esports44c1,480$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.0460646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked OG52c1,386$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.5526956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked OG64c1,354$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.3530138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed OG46c1,294$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.8748057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked OG57c1,279$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.271,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Tundra Esports53c1,209$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.111,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a91…0776backed OG31c1,166$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.871560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+29.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked OG50c1,164$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58237945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Tundra Esports57c1,122$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.7777458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.