College Football · resolved market
Will Nebraska beat Illinois by 8 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x963a0f12c81a956d3eec11bb45f2c2ab46718efb1c36a5708e1311e8b6ad8b91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 49c | 1,131$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.91 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 52c | 1,030$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes | 54c | 650$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed No | 49c | 600$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 51c | 592.66$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.26 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked No | 41c | 550.05$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.48 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Yes | 38c | 450$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 48c | 250$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…4cf3backed Yes | 56c | 223.21$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 49c | 222$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…e1cbbacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.75 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed No | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 50c | 100.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…43e8backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed No | 50c | 75.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 44c | 52.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9b…40b8backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…4a5abacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nebraska beat Illinois by 8 or more points?this page
- Will Nebraska beat Illinois?Illinois won
- Will there be 43 or more combined points scored?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.