College Football · resolved market
Will Nebraska beat Illinois?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2d3a4fd7f47b5d2566b05ad91bde1b890374b3cefbf7e314f0a0b1186f39c90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinoisof Nebraska, Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Nebraska | 77c | 18,149$14,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,021.49 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Illinois | 36c | 6,922$2,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,448.45 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Nebraska | 63c | 4,916$3,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,092.46 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Illinois | 37c | 4,278$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.84 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e0…fe50backed Nebraska | 53c | 2,928$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Illinois | 23c | 2,897$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,230.62 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Illinois | 22c | 2,068$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.32 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Illinois | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Nebraska | 59c | 1,510$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.19 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb789…706fbacked Illinois | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Illinois | 48c | 1,120$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.18 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Illinois | 23c | 1,025$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.22 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfa…a0dabacked Illinois | 31c | 1,010$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Illinois | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.8 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Illinois | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Illinois | 21c | 999.1$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.29 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe97a…9d5bbacked Illinois | 38c | 788$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Nebraska | 7c | 713.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…668bbacked Illinois | 23c | 650$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7653…42e7backed Illinois | 22c | 531.52$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Illinois | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Nebraska | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Illinois | 27c | 479.55$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.01 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Illinois | 24c | 444$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.44 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Illinois | 66c | 433.56$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Illinois | 23c | 412$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…e1cbbacked Nebraska | 78c | 410.26$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Nebraska | 53c | 399.98$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed Illinois | 37c | 347$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.79 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…513ebacked Illinois | 28c | 308.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.4 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…c29abacked Illinois | 63c | 299.98$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Nebraska | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4467…6a75backed Illinois | 41c | 239.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ba…1967backed Illinois | 22c | 208.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Nebraska | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Nebraska | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…4a5abacked Illinois | 27c | 112.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.59 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcb…8f77backed Nebraska | 59c | 101.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Illinois | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…39cfbacked Illinois | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Nebraska | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1823…b0fcbacked Illinois | 47c | 98.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4094…2ec9backed Nebraska | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…c328backed Illinois | 40c | 76.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b27…ed84backed Nebraska | 75c | 65.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…20a3backed Nebraska | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Nebraska | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Illinois | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…5679backed Illinois | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Illinois | 23c | 44.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee2c…55cfbacked Nebraska | 77c | 44.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…7348backed Illinois | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked Illinois | 79c | 34.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…3c0fbacked Nebraska | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8d…3ee3backed Nebraska | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Nebraska | 71c | 19.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…6fc6backed Nebraska | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nebraska beat Illinois?this page
- Will Nebraska beat Illinois by 8 or more points?No won
- Will there be 43 or more combined points scored?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.