NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x963a2cb35ff94c54108a875811b2567d42af831843a6722f77e46de66f1a728c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Panthersof Packers, Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Panthers | 58c | 14,638$8,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,111.22 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Packers | 42c | 7,764$3,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,293.22 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Packers | 41c | 5,073$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Panthers | 46c | 3,363$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.56 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Packers | 55c | 3,024$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.5 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Packers | 41c | 1,800$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3445…7488backed Packers | 57c | 1,228$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Panthers | 42c | 700.71$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.44 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Panthers | 4c | 535$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.25 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…8604backed Panthers | 46c | 270$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…74a1backed Panthers | 45c | 212$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2c…8cdabacked Packers | 55c | 206$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Packers | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…c1b6backed Panthers | 45c | 183$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1905…1a66backed Packers | 55c | 169$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Panthers | 45c | 160.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Packers | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Packers | 41c | 95.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…3cbcbacked Panthers | 54c | 90.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Packers | 46c | 90.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Panthers | 43c | 82.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…ff0cbacked Panthers | 46c | 53.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Packers | 55c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed Packers | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Packers | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2c…5897backed Packers | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49e…58afbacked Packers | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Packers | 53c | 18.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-10.5)this page
- Panthers vs. PackersPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Packers: 1H MoneylinePanthers won
- Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 43.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Packers (-11.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Packers (-12.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Packers (-13.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.