NFL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4ad3360e0d65eebaff39c869232e74392001543e152295a3b72ca2382ebbf40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Under | 57c | 57,211$32,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,781.11 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Over | 45c | 35,931$16,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,169.03 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 43c | 29,346$12,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,744.95 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Under | 55c | 25,444$13,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,544.18 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 11,026$4,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,787.34 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 5,472$2,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,464.45 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Under | 58c | 5,172$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.41 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 55c | 4,961$2,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.81 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 47c | 4,857$2,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,283.02 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 45c | 3,016$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 2,932$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.38 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 43c | 2,536$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.53 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.39 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,058$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.25 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 54c | 1,030$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.8 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 42c | 833$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.86 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e6…2ad9backed Over | 46c | 560$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf09…88b3backed Under | 54c | 465$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…4341backed Over | 46c | 463$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 52c | 416.66$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…6617backed Under | 54c | 374$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42cd…d786backed Under | 54c | 367$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 44c | 331.07$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 46c | 316.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.73 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 38c | 302$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.76 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f9…8f32backed Over | 45c | 265$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…6ad2backed Over | 46c | 261$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…c144backed Over | 46c | 260$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…83c0backed Under | 55c | 252$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8600…a6f2backed Over | 45c | 223$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…74a1backed Under | 55c | 208$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Over | 49c | 205.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…6f9ebacked Over | 47c | 205$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693a…5cd3backed Under | 53c | 194$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2738…6412backed Under | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5b…0d92backed Over | 47c | 188$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18a…47dfbacked Under | 53c | 182$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Over | 45c | 175$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…d262backed Under | 54c | 107$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec8…9a19backed Under | 54c | 96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d4…2708backed Over | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Under | 56c | 78.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2059…5203backed Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cb…574cbacked Over | 46c | 63.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…e56fbacked Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…c142backed Under | 54c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff93…ca00backed Under | 54c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 53c | 49.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Over | 47c | 49.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Over | 46c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…2b2dbacked Under | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7628…b822backed Over | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…db42backed Under | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Under | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…b16abacked Under | 55c | 25.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c98…afbdbacked Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 44.5this page
- Panthers vs. PackersPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Packers: 1H MoneylinePanthers won
- Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 43.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Packers (-10.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Packers (-11.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Packers (-12.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Packers (-13.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.