NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3de91072343285ec710651944d56b5d75917c1b7370fba17df269f0df89e669
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Panthersof Packers, Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Packers | 47c | 78,765$37,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,026.1 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Panthers | 53c | 67,930$36,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,927.32 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Panthers | 51c | 61,111$31,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,944.39 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Packers | 49c | 50,000$24,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,499.99 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Panthers | 53c | 30,000$15,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,100 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Packers | 49c | 13,464$6,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,591.42 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Packers | 47c | 12,765$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,999.55 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Packers | 47c | 7,692$3,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,615.05 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Packers | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Panthers | 52c | 3,908$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.02 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Panthers | 50c | 3,040$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…6355backed Panthers | 52c | 2,700$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…f12dbacked Packers | 48c | 2,700$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Packers | 48c | 2,581$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.79 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Panthers | 52c | 1,564$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.22 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Panthers | 54c | 1,090$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.4 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Packers | 47c | 1,070$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.18 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Packers | 47c | 1,049$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.03 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Packers | 49c | 1,005$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.5 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Panthers | 52c | 961.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.75 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Panthers | 53c | 940.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.49 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Panthers | 53c | 755$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.85 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Panthers | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Packers | 47c | 699.99$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Packers | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Panthers | 51c | 509.8$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.8 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Packers | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Panthers | 49c | 393$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.25 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Panthers | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Packers | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2013…df34backed Panthers | 51c | 303$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Panthers | 51c | 254.9$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Panthers | 53c | 232.83$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.43 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Panthers | 53c | 224.37$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.46 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…a079backed Packers | 48c | 216.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Panthers | 52c | 211$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.28 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Packers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Packers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Panthers | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Packers | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Packers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Panthers | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Panthers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1416…f47abacked Panthers | 52c | 186$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…7afcbacked Panthers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Panthers | 52c | 183.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.23 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Panthers | 51c | 183.67$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…abe4backed Packers | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x704c…de8abacked Panthers | 52c | 173.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Packers | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…0825backed Packers | 51c | 133.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Panthers | 52c | 111$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Packers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Panthers | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Panthers | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Packers | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…3280backed Panthers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Packers | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Packers | 47c | 89.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Panthers | 51c | 82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…c1a4backed Panthers | 51c | 76.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Packers | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a8…e968backed Packers | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Packers | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Panthers | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…9e3bbacked Packers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…b93bbacked Packers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Panthers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Panthers | 51c | 37.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Panthers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Panthers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Panthers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Packers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Packers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…c3e4backed Packers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Panthers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Panthers | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-13.5)this page
- Panthers vs. PackersPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Packers: 1H MoneylinePanthers won
- Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 43.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Packers (-10.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Packers (-11.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Packers (-12.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.