NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8365fe9dce9abdce8d11e9103a8c16158b8cfe17685067825fa6be66c3460e9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Panthersof Packers, Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Panthers | 48c | 45,574$21,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,698.48 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Packers | 52c | 30,000$15,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,600 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Packers | 52c | 21,500$11,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,180 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Panthers | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Panthers | 48c | 3,566$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,852.13 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Panthers | 49c | 3,349$1,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.61 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Packers | 51c | 3,066$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.79 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Packers | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Panthers | 48c | 1,562$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.32 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Panthers | 47c | 1,382$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.28 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Panthers | 48c | 1,374$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.49 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Packers | 53c | 1,092$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.4 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…b896backed Packers | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Packers | 51c | 786.12$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.92 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Panthers | 48c | 743.85$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.8 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Packers | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Panthers | 48c | 292.66$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.12 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Panthers | 48c | 291.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Packers | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Packers | 53c | 274.13$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.29 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Panthers | 49c | 210$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Panthers | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Panthers | 48c | 170$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Panthers | 48c | 166.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Panthers | 48c | 163$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Panthers | 45c | 159.7$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Packers | 51c | 140.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Panthers | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Packers | 53c | 109.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Panthers | 47c | 100.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Panthers | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Panthers | 48c | 74.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Packers | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Panthers | 48c | 54.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Panthers | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-12.5)this page
- Panthers vs. PackersPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Packers: 1H MoneylinePanthers won
- Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 43.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Packers (-10.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Packers (-11.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Packers (-13.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.