NFL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fc275bbe40a8ccbcb2ac14515e9d76fda16f8e25de168e834d7575528429a17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Under | 50c | 4,050$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.02 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 2,007$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.91 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e4…cf0cbacked Over | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 50c | 834.43$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.17 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…ebd8backed Under | 51c | 700$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3c…a7f8backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 50c | 356$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.11 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 348.56$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.96 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 49c | 178.11$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.62 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 51c | 137.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 51c | 67.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 48c | 39.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49e…58afbacked Over | 50c | 23.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 43.5this page
- Panthers vs. PackersPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Packers: 1H MoneylinePanthers won
- Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Packers (-10.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Packers (-11.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Packers (-12.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Packers (-13.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.