Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96643f2898239f932349a05ae7f2c35559619ffb85c5392bb409397a2033da2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 551.56$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.52 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 30c | 400.23$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 339 | 43.1%146 W · 193 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…8700backed Yes | 29c | 387.23$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.03 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 374.65$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.13 | 2,506 | 69.7%1,747 W · 759 L | +78.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 292.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 282.07$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 280.28$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 69c | 249.41$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 239.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 75c | 227$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 225.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 70c | 145.51$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 473 | 44%208 W · 265 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 144.61$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 76c | 142.19$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 29c | 134.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 1,500 | 24.7%371 W · 1,129 L | -31.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 134.89$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 30c | 118.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 115.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 466 | 40.3%188 W · 278 L | +30.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…ff8cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 99.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8e…f599backed Yes | 31c | 97.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 26c | 91.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 571 | 43.4%248 W · 323 L | -32.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 68c | 81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 76c | 64.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 73c | 64.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed No | 72c | 63.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 61.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 31c | 59.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked No | 79c | 59.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 30c | 57.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 554 | 22.4%124 W · 430 L | -21.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 24c | 50.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 62c | 49.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 71c | 49.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 27c | 46.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 24c | 45.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 192 | 9.9%19 W · 173 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 44.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 44.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 27c | 44.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 26c | 42.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 31c | 38.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 32c | 37.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 29c | 37.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 76c | 36.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…795bbacked Yes | 36c | 32.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 63c | 31.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 30.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,367 | 69.2%946 W · 421 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 75c | 30.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 213 | 63.4%135 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 73c | 25.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 70c | 25.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 23.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 71c | 21.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 70c | 20.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 78c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 19.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 19.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 17.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 16.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 79c | 16.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked No | 73c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 14.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b62…e627backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.