Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7ac66dbfe44ae9a9bc7aba9774d8f06cfd2d777155025993654263adf78ac13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 14c | 3,125$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.56 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 1,452$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.09 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 44c | 1,363$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.87 | 401 | 42.4%170 W · 231 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 57c | 959.48$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.04 | 262 | 66.8%175 W · 87 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 51c | 742.21$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.7 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 556.47$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.65 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 16c | 533.05$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 544 | 22.6%123 W · 421 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 44c | 529.99$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.8 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed No | 39c | 526.92$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.19 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 61c | 494.95$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.33 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 46c | 423.91$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.38 | 1,021 | 51.1%522 W · 499 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 42c | 416$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.53 | 1,369 | 20.7%283 W · 1,086 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 47c | 400.1$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.1 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…8700backed Yes | 54c | 380.41$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 37c | 355.94$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.01 | 604 | 61.1%369 W · 235 L | +29.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 47c | 350$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 69c | 288.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 333 | 43.2%144 W · 189 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 80c | 256.86$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 31c | 240.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 468 | 62.6%293 W · 175 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 237$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.28 | 1,457 | 34.8%507 W · 950 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 226.26$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.03 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 79c | 213.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 681 | 50.5%344 W · 337 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 213.58$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.59 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3e…cfaebacked No | 5c | 203.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…3a46backed No | 12c | 201.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,324 | 51.1%676 W · 648 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cd…607dbacked No | 11c | 189.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 50c | 178.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 473 | 44%208 W · 265 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked No | 55c | 178.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 25c | 176.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 1,804 | 55.9%1,009 W · 795 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 32c | 174.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 1,489 | 24.6%366 W · 1,123 L | -34.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 153.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 53c | 150.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 575 | 57.7%332 W · 243 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 148.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 28c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 139.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 56c | 132.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 444 | 58.8%261 W · 183 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 129.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.34 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…c9eebacked Yes | 40c | 123.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 57c | 119.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 1,433 | 57.4%822 W · 611 L | +45.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 13c | 119.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 253 | 61.7%156 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 42c | 116.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 1,235 | 59.7%737 W · 498 L | +35.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 14c | 108.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 252 | 64.7%163 W · 89 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 63c | 101.94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 322 | 45.7%147 W · 175 L | +16.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -10.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 876 | 50.2%440 W · 436 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 219 | 40.6%89 W · 130 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 781 | 55.3%432 W · 349 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 169 | 60.4%102 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 453 | 46.4%210 W · 243 L | -20.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…7227backed Yes | 73c | 90.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…8c4dbacked Yes | 59c | 84.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…bd21backed Yes | 49c | 82.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 14c | 79.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 22c | 78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 15c | 76.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 58c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 237 | 48.5%115 W · 122 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 39c | 73.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 243 | 55.1%134 W · 109 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 57c | 73.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 59c | 67.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 492 | 47.8%235 W · 257 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 19c | 66.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed Yes | 55c | 61.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 39c | 60.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 426 | 45.1%192 W · 234 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 19c | 59.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 50c | 59.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 72c | 54.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 482 | 45.9%221 W · 261 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 53.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 48c | 51.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -14.8wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…47a3backed No | 39c | 51.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 46c | 51.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 512 | 47.1%241 W · 271 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 80c | 50.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 75c | 50.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,279 | 53.9%690 W · 589 L | -27.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 39c | 49.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 228 | 60.1%137 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 29c | 49.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 477 | 62.7%299 W · 178 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked Yes | 40c | 49.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 47c | 46.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 513 | 74.1%380 W · 133 L | +34.3wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 45.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 48c | 45.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 966 | 51.3%496 W · 470 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 50c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 44.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 479 | 40.5%194 W · 285 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 42c | 42.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 544 | 48.3%263 W · 281 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 80c | 41.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 154 | 33.1%51 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…6155backed Yes | 56c | 39.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 38.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…673fbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 79c | 38.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 53c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,412 | 65.3%922 W · 490 L | +60.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.