Tennis · resolved market
Alex Michelsen vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9676e5d8fc77b64ac9a80ac762e791f656f04374035f4c30161f8c999720bb40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over 3.5 | 56c | 711.53$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.65 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over 3.5 | 49c | 665.56$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.56 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Under 3.5 | 43c | 626.11$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.87 | 452 | 51.8%234 W · 218 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 3.5 | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Over 3.5 | 55c | 325.08$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.79 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…a0fdbacked Under 3.5 | 46c | 249.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8087backed Under 3.5 | 46c | 215.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 205.42$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Over 3.5 | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 349 | 57.6%201 W · 148 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Over 3.5 | 57c | 176.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under 3.5 | 44c | 154.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Over 3.5 | 56c | 127.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under 3.5 | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.5 | 43c | 101.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under 3.5 | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under 3.5 | 44c | 70.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…f218backed Over 3.5 | 56c | 53.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 357 | 53.8%192 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…551abacked Over 3.5 | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 3.5 | 48c | 49.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…8d99backed Over 3.5 | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under 3.5 | 43c | 38.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Over 3.5 | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Over 3.5 | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 347 | 48.1%167 W · 180 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ab…ecebbacked Over 3.5 | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…8a64backed Over 3.5 | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa01a…1c6ebacked Under 3.5 | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over 3.5 | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alex Michelsen vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Michelsen vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael JodarRafael Jodar won
- Set 1 Winner: Michelsen vs JodarJodar won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)Michelsen won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Michelsen (+2.5)Michelsen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.