Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Michelsen vs Jodar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2501a2a13e7679c18bc04ab8d8a008e662ae2d0a677757b0cf1876d56f6d096
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jodarof Michelsen, Jodar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Jodar | 72c | 3,057$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.67 | 595 | 53.8%320 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Michelsen | 28c | 1,359$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.27 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Michelsen | 28c | 1,174$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.72 | 1,013 | 50.1%508 W · 505 L | +36.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Michelsen | 27c | 1,072$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.36 | 4,070 | 39.7%1,617 W · 2,453 L | +92.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Jodar | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 7,745 | 50.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L | +93.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0206…bf76backed Jodar | 76c | 658.09$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.32 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Michelsen | 24c | 589.09$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.38 | 3,862 | 34.9%1,348 W · 2,514 L | +92.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Jodar | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 1,672 | 50.1%837 W · 835 L | +30.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Michelsen | 28c | 318.14$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8087backed Michelsen | 40c | 316.32$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.07 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Michelsen | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Jodar | 67c | 303.03$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Jodar | 72c | 278.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 242 | 59.9%145 W · 97 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Michelsen | 25c | 235.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4,882 | 38.8%1,892 W · 2,990 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…90ccbacked Jodar | 80c | 164.14$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Michelsen | 30c | 156.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Jodar | 69c | 138.94$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 652 | 46.3%302 W · 350 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fa…939bbacked Michelsen | 43c | 136.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…7ddfbacked Jodar | 77c | 134.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Jodar | 51c | 121.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 336 | 48.8%164 W · 172 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Michelsen | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Michelsen | 31c | 71.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Jodar | 72c | 62.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 6,411 | 54.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L | +283.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Michelsen | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Michelsen | 31c | 34.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 708 | 21.2%150 W · 558 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Jodar | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 887 | 49.8%442 W · 445 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Michelsen vs Jodarthis page
- Alex Michelsen vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Michelsen vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael JodarRafael Jodar won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)Michelsen won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Michelsen (+2.5)Michelsen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.