Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33428391404e0b3d0ffb1aee21c483fad191dba2991687a27c884ad5212f236e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michelsenof Jodar, Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Jodar | 70c | 17,194$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Michelsen | 30c | 13,694$4,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,589.29 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Jodar | 70c | 5,297$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Michelsen | 31c | 3,001$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,070.34 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Jodar | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.99 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Michelsen | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.9 | 439 | 43.7%192 W · 247 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Michelsen | 32c | 1,560$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.54 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Michelsen | 31c | 1,541$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.52 | 428 | 41.6%178 W · 250 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Jodar | 67c | 1,202$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.28 | 358 | 39.4%141 W · 217 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Michelsen | 32c | 1,123$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.63 | 1,047 | 50%524 W · 523 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Michelsen | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 1,102 | 52.2%575 W · 527 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Michelsen | 34c | 912.91$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.27 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Jodar | 69c | 678.34$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.83 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Michelsen | 30c | 653.54$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.33 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Michelsen | 26c | 483.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.09 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Michelsen | 31c | 253$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.57 | 342 | 42.4%145 W · 197 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Michelsen | 33c | 242.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.69 | 1,579 | 39.8%629 W · 950 L | -34.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Jodar | 70c | 220$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Michelsen | 30c | 209.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.73 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8087backed Michelsen | 36c | 182.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.19 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Michelsen | 31c | 180$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 2,275 | 42.7%972 W · 1,303 L | +33.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Michelsen | 26c | 150$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Michelsen | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.19 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Jodar | 66c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Jodar | 69c | 100.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Jodar | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 250 | 51.2%128 W · 122 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…1803backed Jodar | 74c | 99.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Michelsen | 30c | 98.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 499 | 42.3%211 W · 288 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Jodar | 70c | 87.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Michelsen | 31c | 81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Michelsen | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed Jodar | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Jodar | 74c | 49.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Michelsen | 27c | 39.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 580 | 45.5%264 W · 316 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe437…72c7backed Jodar | 69c | 25.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed Michelsen | 50c | 24.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…4fc0backed Jodar | 50c | 24.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Jodar | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Jodar | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 594 | 66.7%396 W · 198 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Jodar | 72c | 19.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 256 | 59%151 W · 105 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Jodar | 66c | 17.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Jodar | 68c | 15.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)this page
- Alex Michelsen vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Michelsen vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael JodarRafael Jodar won
- Set 1 Winner: Michelsen vs JodarJodar won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Michelsen (+2.5)Michelsen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.