Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9683bcb829041376f99ab1a96f027fe5da5044e66ff5d44f52989cafd85e9853
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 72c | 2,084$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.97 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,103$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.22 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 547.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 64c | 445.17$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 57c | 187.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 142.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 54c | 99.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 63c | 76.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 73.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 47c | 67.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 41c | 65.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 46c | 54.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 34c | 54.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf3…b74abacked Yes | 78c | 52.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f53abacked Yes | 80c | 45.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 34.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…f600backed Yes | 68c | 33.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 55c | 32.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 31.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 80c | 28.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 53c | 20.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…2497backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x374d…809cbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 22?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on August 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on August 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.