MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x968bbf87a2ec5b073f56c2a7e251eccedb6e45629476f32b0da3e3db17709a43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 101,049$54,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,533.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 46c | 100,000$46,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,999.97 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 54c | 1,983$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.93 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 1,458$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.58 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 1,400$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 54c | 1,052$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.92 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Under | 46c | 964.08$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.72 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked Under | 53c | 944.08$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.34per pick | 53cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 54c | 923.28$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.71 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 45c | 465.49$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.47 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 73c | 374.69$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 53c | 348.02$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.57 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Under | 47c | 265$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 246.96$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 53c | 223.32$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.98 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 53c | 189.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Over | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e9…fe78backed Over | 57c | 175.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 45c | 149.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 54c | 135$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 130$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 27c | 120.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 27c | 120.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 27c | 119.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Under | 27c | 119.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…8b84backed Over | 55c | 83.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 59c | 64.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 28c | 58.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Under | 47c | 55.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 47c | 55.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Over | 55c | 44.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 36c | 41.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 63c | 37.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…add6backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 332 | 28.3%94 W · 238 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 46c | 36.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 46c | 33.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 60c | 31.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…998dbacked Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Under | 47c | 28.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 60c | 22.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 54c | 21.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…bbd3backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 72c | 17.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.