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Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TSG 1899 Hoffenheimof TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, SV Werder Bremen
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,041
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,041 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0b9c…7e44backed SV Werder Bremen76c9,553$7,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,260.321957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c3,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2806459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim28c3,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed SV Werder Bremen76c2,435$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.385147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked SV Werder Bremen72c2,153$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.487057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c800$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6088764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c450$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34215454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed SV Werder Bremen72c450$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32422854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30011630.2%35 W · 81 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c400$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30424258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c400$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30412162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c360$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.614355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0cff…15d1backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim28c357$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.041764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+60.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c350$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26613957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed SV Werder Bremen72c317.72$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.768864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked SV Werder Bremen72c300$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2168461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c300$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22815453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c300$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22811860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4901…8832backed SV Werder Bremen7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+135.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c280$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.812757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c278.57$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.7112858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim28c210.71$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.715444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c200$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15210855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c200$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15213256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c190$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.49659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdeb4…9854backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim28c184.29$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.692748.1%13 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim28c178.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.576851.5%35 W · 33 L+10.9wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c170$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.211458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c170$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.213859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c170$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.211259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c170$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.212458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c170$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.26460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c170$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.212358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c170$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.211563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c162.86$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.776556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c160$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.610360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c150$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1148261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c150$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1146959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim28c142.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8617930.2%54 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c120$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.26460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c120$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.212259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked SV Werder Bremen72c120$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.46162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked SV Werder Bremen72c120$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.412657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c120$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.26259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked SV Werder Bremen72c120$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.413254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c120$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.29159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72ee…a848backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim31c120$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.311556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ccc…dbcdbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim25c105$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.755839.7%23 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765957.6%34 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768155.6%45 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim28c89.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.293033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c80$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.85459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd03b…856cbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c80$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.87057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked SV Werder Bremen72c72.86$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.468952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.438844.3%39 W · 49 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.435158.8%30 W · 21 L+6.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed SV Werder Bremen72c70$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.411661.2%71 W · 45 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.65558.2%32 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.65459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.611360.2%68 W · 45 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.65461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.66464.1%41 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.65757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed SV Werder Bremen72c60$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.211759.8%70 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.66657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.65558.2%32 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.611063.6%70 W · 40 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.69861.2%60 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc2b0…e756backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.23745.9%17 W · 20 L+4.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+28.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52a4…7fe3backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361580%12 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+58.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4b7a…2ecabacked SV Werder Bremen71c48.06$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd604…cb5fbacked SV Werder Bremen76c41.94$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-49.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab8…d621backed SV Werder Bremen76c28.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.53862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed SV Werder Bremen77c21.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5733340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9750…7956backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim65c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed SV Werder Bremen78c16.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4911281.3%91 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.