Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9712d7e37fe7b8b1bc767269a5b225a22e3be6e1d45c03957099d78146bc5607
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 2,482$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.32 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 28c | 1,484$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…9cfbbacked Over | 80c | 1,084$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…0b75backed Over | 73c | 849.57$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 73c | 674$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Under | 14c | 664.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 71c | 599.02$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.3 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 73c | 598.13$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.14 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Under | 28c | 582.06$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.98 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac8…6167backed Under | 4c | 556.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 27c | 423$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.21 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 391.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 27c | 291.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 27c | 199.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Over | 73c | 196.76$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 72c | 196.64$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked Over | 72c | 180$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 73c | 175.2$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 27c | 154.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…fa8ebacked Over | 73c | 138.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 27c | 106.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Over | 74c | 102.43$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Under | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 26c | 99.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…f0dcbacked Over | 73c | 94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 21c | 91.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under | 26c | 73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 27c | 72.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 27c | 54.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 140 | 57.1%80 W · 60 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 27c | 50.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 27c | 42.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Over | 73c | 40.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3113backed Over | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb017…9f48backed Over | 73c | 35.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Over | 73c | 33.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Over | 79c | 31.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 80c | 29.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…84c5backed Over | 72c | 28.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x096e…efd8backed Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 73c | 23.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…b1f8backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 73c | 19.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 30 | 86.7%26 W · 4 L | +9.2wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed Over | 77c | 18.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d16…addabacked Over | 73c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 73c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.