Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bbcf39cd0cae136446d6c501bc97d0bae66401841131a5177cc2f24126b6280
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac47…d234backed Over | 30c | 11,372$3,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,367.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 4,326$3,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.71 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 33c | 2,537$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +82%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 44c | 1,721$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…8e52backed Under | 71c | 1,041$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414c…f10bbacked Under | 65c | 868.31$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 69c | 709.49$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.73 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 70c | 599.97$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.3 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 35c | 582$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.7 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 68c | 490.43$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.28 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 26c | 477.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.23 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -10.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 33c | 364.17$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 68c | 334.32$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 37c | 299.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 69c | 288.77$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…8454backed Under | 54c | 269.95$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Under | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 249.64$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 63c | 226.02$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.23 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…317ebacked Under | 62c | 201.57$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 31c | 191.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 67c | 190.93$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 69c | 174$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 76c | 168.59$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Over | 46c | 150.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Under | 69c | 148.61$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9e…2e40backed Under | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Under | 60c | 146.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22d8…b421backed Under | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…3757backed Under | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Under | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Under | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e60…449abacked Over | 13c | 124.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +186%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 67c | 114.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 71c | 107.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Under | 54c | 90.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Under | 64c | 89.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 15c | 81.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 31c | 77.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Over | 66c | 73.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 66c | 69.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Under | 74c | 66.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 30c | 62.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00d…cd39backed Over | 46c | 62.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Over | 56c | 60.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 55c | 55.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…ee1abacked Under | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Under | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 31c | 52.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 140 | 57.1%80 W · 60 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 22c | 51.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 41c | 47.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Over | 51c | 44.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x619e…0149backed Under | 69c | 35.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…269dbacked Under | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 63c | 35.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164d…50c0backed Under | 66c | 31.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b5…2ee9backed Under | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…2aa3backed Under | 67c | 26.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 45c | 25.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Over | 59c | 24.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…db25backed Under | 55c | 21.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c39…56b8backed Under | 71c | 20.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6efb…01afbacked Under | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 69c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 68c | 18.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e9…4f57backed Under | 70c | 18.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 69c | 17.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ac…cb84backed Under | 69c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5281…bdd8backed Under | 69c | 14.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.