TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,289
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,584

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,289 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes47c428.92$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.95827.6%16 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No55c332.3$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.1535258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes46c323.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0311636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No56c290.1$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.618856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes17c284.21$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1711039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes47c272.18$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.338636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes10c201.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.125837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c191.39$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4244138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No52c185.62$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.52757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b7d…d2dcbacked Yes45c185.06$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5470…b04cbacked Yes42c143.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.981560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes54c140$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.976533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No57c135.02$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.641752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No55c128.97$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0413243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No68c126.07$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.635383%44 W · 9 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No48c120.74$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.261656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No54c120.62$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3721844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No71c105.86$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.858100%8 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c100.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7327521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d0…1845backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No56c95.41$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.077560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes56c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.15131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No56c83$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8136055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes32c82.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1316254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No49c76.84$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.212161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+32.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No54c75.25$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.951,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No56c71.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4718762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96b0…67c5backed Yes55c69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes42c65.91$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2816934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd938…fa19backed Yes38c64.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No48c63.77$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.91758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes44c63.61$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.696336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No56c63.55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.053961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes28c62.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5710837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.817345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes41c56.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.035646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes29c55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1716738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No49c53.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.462166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+42.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c51.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0123459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Yes41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a65…5b95backed Yes61c48.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed Yes36c47.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.061136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No65c47.15$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.618672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes44c45.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.855141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes44c45.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.121040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No56c45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.615766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked Yes57c44.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes45c44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes38c43.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.694932.7%16 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes53c43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.615961%36 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe88e…03e8backed No65c42.69$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes35c41.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.64837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes69c40.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No52c40.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2813748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.65341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.27030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d69…9f70backed Yes51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No51c39.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.212544%11 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes40c38.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4411045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6139952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked No64c37.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.57236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes29c37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.739936.4%36 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No55c35.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1513155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No56c35.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.648038.8%31 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74c9…5915backed No60c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes39c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83930.8%12 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes46c34.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.787842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No62c32.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2610640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes40c32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.84233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed No63c31.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.541275%9 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes34c31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.542650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No62c30.87$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7418035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1115558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.862623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No55c29.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.511647.4%55 W · 61 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e92…ad5bbacked Yes36c28.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.046556.9%37 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No61c27.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6716051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No57c26.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.363663.9%23 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8579…ed5dbacked No62c25.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.76560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f2…8d3cbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5726355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c24.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.754647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes49c24.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.144259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes48c23.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.391425.6%8 W · 134 L-27.2wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No64c23.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3910039%39 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ffd…43f9backed No63c23.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.554100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+79.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes50c22.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.443641.7%15 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7615…308abacked No54c22.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.091560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+43.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No66c21.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.486566.2%43 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No67c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.17875%6 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No70c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.33778.4%29 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No52c20.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9539231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No59c20.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2116450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1316755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105135.3%18 W · 33 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.