TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,134

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,586 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes38c447.2$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.972623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes43c364.38$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.265827.6%16 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c361.55$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2940648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes45c358.04$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.049020%18 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No60c332.3$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5735258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No56c330.79$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.98856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes50c285.3$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.4611039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes41c258$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.188636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a65…5b95backed No18c243.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No34c240.45$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7321844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No68c226.41$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.369160.4%55 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c222.55$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.2144138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes68c213.03$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4915056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes47c205.43$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.15030%15 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.53828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes36c182.83$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.484139%16 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+45.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No64c150.31$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.123565.7%23 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c135.55$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3732748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No38c132.73$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5924637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No31c129.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7218762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes24c126.87$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.065837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c126$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5627521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No58c125.93$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1513243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82e7…f552backed No67c119.81$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.791553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-26.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No40c112.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.552850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No37c108.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9639414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes30c105.22$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.616934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes41c100.97$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9718638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5611045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.176437.5%24 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No22c98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5439952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked Yes41c90.9$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.45560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+76.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes43c89.07$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.179337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca69…7153backed No56c88.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.57475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No60c86.65$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.587560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No60c85.92$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.891070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc91…2842backed No63c79.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No60c77.93$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.723961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No64c74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.361566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No63c73$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.997842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes66c72.35$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3416852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No33c70.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4313748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No65c70$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.55066%33 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes44c69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.610837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes38c68.53$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2211636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes45c67.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.275149%25 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c64.65$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2923459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes25c60.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.82544%11 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes46c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.417345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No76c59.35$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.25757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes35c57.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1939231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes42c55$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6616738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No62c52.31$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4332639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19cb…a867backed Yes39c51.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.43728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d2…0789backed Yes44c50.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b24…d8e3backed No59c50.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes77c50.79$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.616450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.798235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No67c48.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9516755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No56c48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2731152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes41c47.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.252646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+32.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d69…9f70backed Yes47c45.93$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes42c45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.16224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No58c45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2115766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No57c44.9$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7418035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d0…1845backed No54c42.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa53…02a8backed Yes40c42.75$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.854100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+113.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No56c42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5226355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.818348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes40c37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.29936.4%36 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.952360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes44c33.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.081457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes38c33.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.73930.8%12 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed Yes41c33.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.791136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No60c33.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed Yes45c33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181181.8%9 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.37per pick45cpaid+88.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9e53…254cbacked No62c32.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked Yes38c32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc239…ebe8backed Yes43c31.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+49.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No65c30.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.525945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.315558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes39c29.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.32147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No60c29.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.568672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed No74c28.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.452653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No59c28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.966556.9%37 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No52c26.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.411425.6%8 W · 134 L-27.2wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x3bf9…1ffabacked No63c25.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.07520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7510030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes44c24.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.735141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb2c…0854backed No59c24.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c23.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8534354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed No59c23.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.661275%9 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2827…cdd9backed Yes45c23$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ca4…118dbacked No59c22.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No57c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6420065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c21.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x841b…a2a7backed No59c21.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-50.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.