TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Patriots: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Patriotsof Bills, Patriots
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,364
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,383

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,364 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9b29…8373backed Patriots48c638$306 inWon+$331.7612842.2%54 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bills52c595.2$310 inLost-$309.539754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda20…0cbebacked Bills35c91.44$32 inLost-$31.942934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Patriots64c72.1$46 inWon+$25.9575852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e66…921dbacked Patriots46c57$26 inWon+$30.781442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc5…6092backed Bills56c42.8$24 inLost-$23.971050%5 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+92.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x711d…fe4bbacked Bills54c27$15 inLost-$14.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c9…bacfbacked Patriots69c19.33$13 inWon+$5.991353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.