NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7340db07b57ef7a1fb4ce7f5edc617bb721f699d3770115da50f75c32429063c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Billsof Bills, Patriots
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Patriots | 50c | 37,394$18,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,707.86 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Bills | 50c | 16,325$8,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,162.5 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…99a7backed Bills | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bills | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Bills | 50c | 3,940$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,970 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…00f8backed Bills | 51c | 2,372$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed Bills | 77c | 1,140$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.84 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +165.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bills | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Bills | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Bills | 51c | 313$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.37 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bills | 49c | 189.22$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3629…85c5backed Patriots | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Bills | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Bills | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…3cbcbacked Bills | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Patriots | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…c16cbacked Bills | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Bills | 50c | 63.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…666cbacked Patriots | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Patriots | 50c | 26.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)this page
- Bills vs. PatriotsBills won
- Bills vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 49.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 58.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Patriots (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.