NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb60324c6220e7bd47f0781d21a2f21998b9c818c447ab595eeb15d62d4361cbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 52c | 37,625$19,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,060.74 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 48c | 37,192$17,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,852.3 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 47c | 23,897$11,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,192.56 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,599.99 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 48c | 17,186$8,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,246.7 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 48c | 11,812$5,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,669.75 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 9,996$5,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,705.06 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 53c | 8,888$4,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,177.36 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,839.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 54c | 2,222$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.22 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 53c | 1,797$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.88 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 54c | 1,391$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.74 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…822cbacked Under | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Over | 53c | 1,046$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.62 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 53c | 949.44$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.24 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 923$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.04 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 52c | 399.02$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.96 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Under | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…8fb9backed Under | 49c | 213$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…7b09backed Over | 52c | 213$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8218…86a7backed Under | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…d3e4backed Over | 52c | 210$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61a4…f491backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…aa74backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…8288backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa886…cf55backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 65c | 190$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…bf14backed Under | 49c | 185$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ba…7212backed Over | 52c | 185$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a32…6bbebacked Under | 49c | 176$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd791…2eadbacked Over | 52c | 176$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Under | 49c | 123.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…6b37backed Over | 52c | 109.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 95.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 54c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0efe…df51backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 48c | 79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…a141backed Over | 53c | 77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Under | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 49.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…d6c1backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…b91ebacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…2e0cbacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Under | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 52c | 19.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 48.5this page
- Bills vs. PatriotsBills won
- Bills vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 49.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 58.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Patriots (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.