NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2e3f2e420ca272750380091126ab293e8708ea0e3db4782b663b310ea314479
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Bills, Patriots
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Bills | 39c | 7,052$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750.27 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Patriots | 10c | 7,015$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,300.15 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +103%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Patriots | 62c | 3,514$2,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.64 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Patriots | 65c | 2,500$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Patriots | 61c | 2,341$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.09 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Patriots | 61c | 2,087$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.9 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Bills | 35c | 1,267$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.47 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Bills | 38c | 611.21$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.18 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bills | 36c | 339.65$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.27 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Bills | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Bills | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Bills | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Bills | 37c | 238.1$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…e4d2backed Patriots | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bills | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bills | 35c | 148.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Bills | 37c | 145.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bills | 35c | 145.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Patriots | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebcd…8e34backed Patriots | 66c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7d…5852backed Bills | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Bills | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03fc…a8e6backed Bills | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Patriots | 54c | 35.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01bd…a9dbbacked Patriots | 62c | 34.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…7fc8backed Bills | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -5.7wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Patriots | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)this page
- Bills vs. PatriotsBills won
- Bills vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 49.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 58.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Patriots (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Patriots (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.