NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe98e1f2c8f908b4db6b7feb547abf3a1db0889676ba27cdd2c175c7289d397f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Billsof Patriots, Bills
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bills | 58c | 1,967$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.02 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Patriots | 42c | 1,931$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.02 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Patriots | 42c | 686.44$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.44 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Bills | 58c | 686.44$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.44 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Patriots | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bills | 52c | 619.29$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.26 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…fcf3backed Patriots | 46c | 475.5$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.73 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Bills | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Patriots | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 206 | 32%66 W · 140 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bills | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bills | 54c | 162.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Bills | 59c | 77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bills | 54c | 59.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Bills | 59c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Patriots | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Bills | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Bills | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Patriots | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Patriots | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…532fbacked Patriots | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-1.5)this page
- Bills vs. PatriotsBills won
- Bills vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 49.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 58.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.