NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eb9f82ac6bce479a2e556be39803400247bf261311bdf8a599edc1dabd8f971
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Billsof Bills, Patriots
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Patriots | 48c | 52,486$25,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,177.56 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Patriots | 47c | 34,797$16,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,360.45 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bills | 52c | 19,785$10,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,496.63 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Bills | 53c | 18,228$9,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,567.11 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Bills | 53c | 15,000$7,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,049.78 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Bills | 52c | 14,748$7,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,095.11 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bills | 52c | 5,904$3,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,860.49 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Bills | 51c | 5,658$2,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,772.62 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Patriots | 50c | 4,004$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Bills | 50c | 3,000$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bills | 52c | 2,114$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.72 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Bills | 53c | 2,100$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.15 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bills | 53c | 2,052$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.47 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Patriots | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bills | 52c | 1,614$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.72 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Bills | 50c | 1,301$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.34 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ac…4a3cbacked Bills | 51c | 1,268$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.31 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Patriots | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Bills | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.23 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Bills | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Bills | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Patriots | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Patriots | 48c | 462.39$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.41 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Bills | 52c | 451.9$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.91 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Bills | 52c | 422.88$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.98 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Patriots | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Patriots | 51c | 392.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Patriots | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Patriots | 61c | 315.13$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.23 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Patriots | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…7a42backed Patriots | 48c | 285.6$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.09 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bills | 52c | 277.02$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.97 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Bills | 51c | 264.28$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44de…e77fbacked Patriots | 49c | 220$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde77…6351backed Bills | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Bills | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3441…6e5ebacked Patriots | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…a940backed Bills | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd65…fcfabacked Patriots | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Bills | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Bills | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Patriots | 51c | 176.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…7885backed Patriots | 51c | 121$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bills | 50c | 106.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Bills | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Bills | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Patriots | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Bills | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Bills | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Patriots | 50c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Bills | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705e…c57dbacked Bills | 52c | 68.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Bills | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Patriots | 49c | 61.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Patriots | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 74.4%61 W · 21 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Bills | 49c | 55.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0488…aea5backed Patriots | 50c | 52.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Patriots | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Patriots | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Bills | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Bills | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e3…6548backed Bills | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…aac7backed Patriots | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Patriots | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Bills | 51c | 38.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Bills | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929f…def4backed Bills | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Bills | 49c | 29.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…af68backed Patriots | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Patriots | 61c | 26.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Patriots | 49c | 26.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Patriots | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebcd…8e34backed Patriots | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Bills | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Bills | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Patriots | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)this page
- Bills vs. PatriotsBills won
- Bills vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 49.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bills vs. Patriots: O/U 58.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Patriots (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.