Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97567a874d3cbef1bdd75ed7ca81b481cdcdcbed70c6559ff15a01a1e4acb743
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,159$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 522.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 16c | 513.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 18c | 423.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 362.76$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 30c | 358.01$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 11c | 173.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 164.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 159.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 151.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 11c | 138.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 135.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 101.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 73c | 87.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 80c | 86.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 71.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 71c | 70.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 69.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 26c | 64.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 20c | 58.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 75c | 56.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 54.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 53.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 50.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 27c | 49.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 25c | 49.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee8…cb1cbacked Yes | 27c | 44.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 44.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2914backed Yes | 27c | 43.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed No | 74c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 30c | 36.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…ec99backed No | 76c | 31.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 30.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 28.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 73c | 28.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8a…74b1backed No | 76c | 22.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 20.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…6891backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 69c | 18.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 71c | 18.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 76c | 18.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…cd79backed No | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 15.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 72c | 15.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 79c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.