Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0339ad4904a4efc548913454c09df2d671b6fcc9f7426a1dded5802c3ce9b372
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 4c | 587.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 58c | 401.9$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.37 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 54c | 364.78$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.3 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 21c | 311.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 308.94$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 252.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 246.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 47c | 235.1$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 15c | 227.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 218.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 182.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 12c | 169.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 7c | 167.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 50c | 156$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 46c | 150.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 72c | 138$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 42c | 135.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 134.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 132.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 40c | 130$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 73c | 127.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 49c | 126$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 62c | 125.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 119.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed Yes | 46c | 119.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 79c | 108.87$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 104.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 95.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 91.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 45c | 88.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 81.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 50c | 79.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 58c | 75.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 49c | 71.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 49c | 67.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 67.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 36c | 62.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 62.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 60.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 52c | 59.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 45c | 55.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 52c | 53.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 49c | 51.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 59c | 49.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 76c | 46.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 48c | 46.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2914backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 49c | 44.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 43.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 56c | 43.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 39c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 42.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 49c | 41.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 60c | 37.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 53c | 35.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 61c | 34.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 41c | 32.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 53c | 32.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…737cbacked No | 44c | 32.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…bde5backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 51c | 28.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 64c | 27.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…1698backed Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d0…d84bbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 59c | 24.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 50c | 23.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 48c | 23.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed No | 55c | 21.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 21.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe088…7485backed Yes | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…c4cfbacked No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 15.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.