CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: FlyQuest vs. Liquid
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9756bc4d30c8ad63642dc147652db3093544047c09c6a49355ea7d3afd101996
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liquidof FlyQuest, Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x008a…21a8backed FlyQuest | 29c | 13,836$4,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,034.6 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Liquid | 69c | 3,722$2,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.96 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Liquid | 74c | 3,597$2,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.21 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Liquid | 59c | 2,694$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.22 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Liquid | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Liquid | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.31 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Liquid | 67c | 1,600$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Liquid | 66c | 1,313$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.4 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked Liquid | 68c | 1,082$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.69 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked Liquid | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed FlyQuest | 32c | 999.98$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…aeabbacked FlyQuest | 31c | 897.37$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Liquid | 65c | 846.46$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked FlyQuest | 34c | 700$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Liquid | 67c | 530.07$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.92 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed FlyQuest | 12c | 399.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Liquid | 76c | 394.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 112 | 69.6%78 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Liquid | 69c | 391.3$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Liquid | 73c | 380.77$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a9…23c3backed Liquid | 68c | 367.64$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed FlyQuest | 32c | 307.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked FlyQuest | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed FlyQuest | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed FlyQuest | 34c | 254.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked FlyQuest | 31c | 217.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked FlyQuest | 35c | 210.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…200bbacked Liquid | 65c | 202.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed FlyQuest | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb78…3acfbacked FlyQuest | 33c | 181.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed FlyQuest | 40c | 178.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked Liquid | 67c | 149.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Liquid | 69c | 132.94$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked Liquid | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…22abbacked FlyQuest | 33c | 91.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed FlyQuest | 27c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked FlyQuest | 26c | 80.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Liquid | 63c | 72.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed FlyQuest | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Liquid | 68c | 51.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Liquid | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed FlyQuest | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked FlyQuest | 27c | 42.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed Liquid | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ae…64f1backed Liquid | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.