MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97608d8de4ee9807e7a491f87a59be8c1ea958b1da6bb4ec2aa5131a3fddb4da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 19c | 18,652$3,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,098.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 70c | 3,381$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,368.18 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 2,313$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.78 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 1,801$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.13 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked New York Mets | 34c | 1,555$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.3 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Mets | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 953.97$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.62 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 903.26$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 75c | 847.93$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.64 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 27c | 826.34$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 78c | 566.33$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 35c | 314.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets | 34c | 300.24$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.16 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 290.8$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.02 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 22c | 240$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 193.04$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.48 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed New York Mets | 29c | 166.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.82 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Miami Marlins | 71c | 163.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.43 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 37c | 162.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 143.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 143.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed New York Mets | 20c | 134.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked New York Mets | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Miami Marlins | 71c | 97.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 72.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Miami Marlins | 71c | 71.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…9c66backed New York Mets | 35c | 68.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 68.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed New York Mets | 51c | 58.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed New York Mets | 53c | 47.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed New York Mets | 31c | 44.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed New York Mets | 25c | 43.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 42.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed New York Mets | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked New York Mets | 29c | 39.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed New York Mets | 34c | 35.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed New York Mets | 77c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.